25 Jun 2020 / Blog > Corona

Effects of COVID19 on real estate offers in Hamburg and Berlin

Titelbild Post: Corona Berlin x Hamburg

In order to assess the effects of the corona crisis on the real estate market, we have analysed more than 30,000 residential advertisements published on all major platforms in Berlin and Hamburg over the last five months. We compared how the number of advertisements and their average square metre prices have changed. In addition, we looked at the search frequency of relevant terms on Google and thus came to interesting conclusions.

The number of advertisements for apartments in Hamburg fell by 19 percent by the end of May

This is the average of the daily published ads per month (and not the total number of new ads per month). This allows us to show a trend before the end of June, although we already collected our data on 21.06.2020.

This is the average of the daily published ads per month (and not the total number of new ads per month). This allows us to show a trend before the end of June, although we already collected our data on 21.06.2020.

Looking at the number of housing advertisements published daily on average in Hamburg, one can see that in comparison to February, the number of daily published housing advertisements had fallen by about 19 percent by the end of May. The renewed increase in the number of advertisements in June is striking, which coincides with the relaxation of the corona restrictions. Compared to May, the number of advertisements rose by approximately 73 percent and, with an average of 47.15 advertisements per day, is even higher than in February.

Housing listings in Berlin plummeted 62 percent by the end of May

This is the average of the daily published ads per month (and not the total number of new ads per month). This allows us to show a trend before the end of June, although we already collected our data on 21.06.2020.

This is the average of the daily published ads per month (and not the total number of new ads per month). This allows us to show a trend before the end of June, although we already collected our data on 21.06.2020.

The findings for housing advertisements in Berlin are different from that in Hamburg. From February until the end of May, there was a significant drop of more than 62 percent in the number of daily published residential advertisements. Only in June is a recovery of around 90 percent compared to May noticeable. As in Hamburg, this coincides with the relaxation of the corona measures.

A corona effect on square meter prices in Hamburg is not easy to detect

When analysing the square metre prices in Hamburg, no clear statement can be made. The offer prices fluctuated, but it is difficult to see whether this was due to Corona.

The prices we collected represent the offer prices that were set for the advertisements before the sales negotiations started. We could not ascertain what the actual notarised and paid sales prices were. Real notarized sales became more difficult due to the lockdown from mid-March onwards. We suspect that the number of notarial services declined as a result.

Square meter prices in Berlin rose by 4 percent

While the square metre prices in Hamburg show fluctuations within the last five months, this cannot be seen in Berlin. Despite the lockdown, prices remained very stable, but rose slightly in June at around 4 percent compared to February.

Interest in real estate exceeds the pre-crisis level

red = search queries on Google over time for "buy house"
blue = search queries on Google over time for "buy apartment"

red = search queries on Google over time for "buy house" blue = search queries on Google over time for "buy apartment"

An indication that the interest in real estate in Germany has already returned to pre-crisis levels is provided by Google Trends. Google Trends provides information about which search terms are entered by Google users, how often and over what time period. The frequency of terms such as "buy a house" or "buy an apartment" experienced a massive slump, especially at the beginning of the contact restrictions in March. In the meantime, the number of search queries has even exceeded the previous year's level. Investments were probably postponed for the time being by Corona and have now been increasingly addressed.

No crisis in the real estate market for the time being due to Corona

Our data shows that the number of advertisements in Hamburg has only developed slightly negatively in the last few months from February to the end of May and then rose above pre-crisis levels in June. In Berlin, the picture is clearer, at least in terms of advertising. Here, there has been a significant slump since the beginning of the crisis in March. However, the number of advertisements recovered again with the easing in June.

However, the square metre prices of the new advertisements in Berlin remained largely unchanged, while they were subject to slight fluctuations in Hamburg.

Our analysis shows that the corona crisis will not lead to a crisis in the real estate market for the time being. However, it will only become apparent in the long term how strongly price factors such as recession, salaries, unemployment, consumer climate, immigration and construction activity will change and how this will affect the real estate market.

The graphs shown here result from the daily published real estate offers of the common platforms. We summarise these for our users on a daily basis based on their search profile. This gives our users a comprehensive overview of what is currently happening and being offered on the real estate market.

All common german real estate platforms in one overview for free

The latest offerings, relevant metrics and market developments at a glance.